The Netherlands:Paradigm or Exception in Western Europe’s Demography?

This article reviews the position of the population of the Netherlands in the context of the demographic characteristics of the other seventeen major Western European countries. It attempts to show the ways in which the population of the Netherlands is part of the European mainstream and where it diverges in various interesting ways. Where possible, a (partial) explanation for this divergence will be given 1 Oxford University, Dept. of Social Policy and Social Work, Barnett House, Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2ER, United Kingdom; e-mail: [email protected] 2 Statistics Netherlands, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg, The Netherlands; e-mail: [email protected] Demographic Research – Volume 7, Article 12 http://www.demographic-research.org 434 1. Demographic variety in Europe and its future Differences in the average demographic characteristics of countries reflect important contrasts in the way that their inhabitants live. Willekens (1999) comments: ‘Demographic events are milestones in the lives of people. Most events that occur between birth and death that have a notable effect upon a person’s life are demographic events. [...] They mark transitions between stages or episodes of life and are the basic components of a ‘life structure’. Demographic events [...] constitute the skeleton of human life.’ European integration and convergence, both socio-economic and political, is one of the major issues of the 21 century. International differences in the aspects that are studied by demographers, reflect and contribute to those patterns of similarity or divergence. Some countries are regarded, or regard themselves, as being somewhat different from other European societies in respect of their demographic and other behaviour. In some cases distinctive behaviour is interpreted as social malaise, for example the high level of teenage birth in Great Britain (Coleman and Chandola, 1999). Other distinctive characteristics, for example the diversity of family forms best developed in some Scandinavian countries, are regarded more as a universal model for the future, with divergent countries simply being at an earlier stage of development (Roussel, 1994). Underlying much of this discussion is an assumption of future demographic convergence, which is welcomed as an indicator of the minimization of differences between European populations. Empirical evidence, however, does not always support such assumptions (Bosveld, 1996; Kuijsten, 1996). The Netherlands is a very interesting example in this European context. It is one of the more prosperous countries of Europe, usually moderate in its politics and its attitudes, internationally oriented and apparently lacking salient pathological demographic features. Nonetheless in some demographic characteristics it is quite exceptional and has been so for decades. Might the Dutch pattern of ‘moderate exceptionalism’ be a model for Western Europe’s future rather than the ‘progressive’ patterns of Scandinavia, or is it just a transient inheritance from a more diverse European past? This article, which builds upon some preliminary work published in Dutch (Coleman 2001, tr. Garssen), reviews the position of the population of the Netherlands in comparison with the demographic characteristics of the other seventeen major Western European countries. It attempts to show the ways in which the population of the Netherlands is part of the European mainstream and where it diverges in various interesting ways, and offers some comments on possible future developments. Demographic Research – Volume 7, Article 12 http://www.demographic-research.org 435 2. The context of Dutch population trends To an outsider, the demographic characteristics of the Dutch population reflect the status of the Netherlands in general, that is to say, a country inhabited by people relatively free of exceptional problems, living a comfortable life. The Netherlands enjoys a high standard of living and relatively low levels of inequality. Although recently jolted out of its belief that political violence would be ‘un-Dutch’, it remains on the whole happy with its constitution and at ease with its history, with no territorial disputes with its neighbours. Neither is it threatened by breakaway movements from dissident provinces or minorities. The ancient religious division into Protestant and Catholic, which once defined economic, social and private life to a remarkable degree, has lost much of its force with new attitudes to religion. A secular Samson has brought down the old pillars of Dutch society. Religious divisions apart, in its lack of enduring ancient ethnic divisions the Netherlands is unique among the larger countries of Europe, showing a degree of homogeneity only seen elsewhere in a few smaller countries, such as Denmark. This tends to make for tranquil demography. Like all other major countries, however, it has acquired post-war immigrant minorities from the third world, with all the problems associated with coping with new cultural and demographic diversity. 3. Demographic indicators Let us first see how the Netherlands compares with the Western European average with a number of demographic indicators, and how its position has changed in the second half of the twentieth century (Table 1). Wherever possible the comparisons are made with the average of 18 Western European countries (EUR-18; ‘Western’ in the broad Cold War sense, including the Netherlands itself) and also with the averages of the seven countries of Northern Europe, the seven countries of Western Europe proper and the four Southern European countries. ‘Eastern’ Europe is excluded; its populations, like its economies in a state of transition, cannot yet offer meaningful comparisons. As we are interested in the comparison of populations, not of the average European person, the unweighted averages are employed. Comparisons will not usually go beyond 1998, to ensure a full complement of European countries. Demographic Research – Volume 7, Article 12 http://www.demographic-research.org 436 Table 1: Selected demographic indicators: Netherlands and European averages 1950 and 1998 Northern Europe (1) Western Europe (2) Southern Europe (3) EUR-18 Netherlands Rank (4) (out of) 195